Which NFL trends will carry into 2022 season Fourth-down aggressiveness first-down passing more
As we near the end of one of the most parity-driven NFL seasons in history, it's smart to Corey Dickerson Jersey reflect on what transpired around the league and spin it forward to pinpoint what trends will be copied in this notoriously copycat league.Sometimes these trends are drawn directly from the regular season. In other instances, they come from a playoff game, and occasionally, the Super Bowl.This season, it feels like we've already gotten the trends that'll play a role in shaping team-building efforts and game-planning philosophies acro s the league. Let's identify those trends before ....has probably been yelled from stadium seats and living rooms more this season than any in NFL history. It's surely taken time, but it now feels like the foundational thought proce s behind fourth-down decisions has fully been flipped on its head. Forever, fourth-down choices were rooted in conservatism -- let's not try to lose this game. Now, the underlying philosophy is based in aggre sion -- let's win this game.For defenses, not the best development. For offenses and all NFL lovers, a tremendous breakthrough. Check how the league, collectively, got bolder on fourth downs. The 2021 NFL season set modern day records in:4th-and-1 go for it rate (69%)4th-and-2 go for it rate (39%)4th-and-3 go for it rate (19%)Two point conversion attempt rate (11%)The revolution arrived and it was on your television Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez) Kyle Shanahan's decision to punt on fourth-and-2 from the 45-yard line with a three-point lead in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship will haunt him and fans for a while, and Martin Prado Jersey it'll serve as the loudest reminder that coaches should be more courageous. In fact, I believe we've gotten to the point where coaches will not want to be the one to fold under pre sure and punt when, previously, there was an overarching fear to be the overly bold coach who'd get burned by a failed fourth-down attempt. Yes, there was the infamous game against the in primetime, when Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley decided to go for it on fourth down three times -- and came up empty every time. The Chargers lost. But because Staley is such a , he'll be one of the coaches pushing this new aggre sive era forward. And, over time, the Chargers will be better off routinely keeping the offense on the field in fourth-down situations than punting or opting to kick field goals. Related to this, the two-point conversion in unconventional instances will become more common, as evidenced by the NFL record being set during the 2021 season (11%). This article by ESPN's Seth Walder explains the logic behind one of the analytics community's boldest ideas -- .Walder spells out the thought proce s nicely, and it's more sound than you probably thought, right? My bet is we see the two-point conversion rate continue to rise for the 2022 season and beyond. Pick Six Newsletter Crafted By The Best NFL Experts Get the day's big stories + fun stuff Brad Ziegler Jersey you love like mock drafts, picks and power rankings. I agree to receive the "Pick Six Newsletter" and marketing communications, updates, special offers (including partner offers), and other information from CBS Sports and the Paramount family of companies. By pre sing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the and acknowledge Paramount's . Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe. Thanks for signing up! Keep an eye on your inbox. Sorry! There was an error proce sing your subscription. The 49ers, Chiefs, and entered conference championship Sunday as the . And had the most total YAC of any receiver in football.Amazing, right?And YAC is here to stay. Yes, growing is the list of rocket-armed, highly athletic specimens playing the quarterback position today, pa sers who adore launching it deep and toting the rock. But league-total YAC has increased in four of the last five seasons and set an all-time high this season with 63,161 yards after the catch during the regular season.That was around 3,500 more YAC than in 2020 and nearly 7,000 more yards than 2017. A decade ago, the NFL accumulated 54,403 yards after the catch. Therefore, the league has averaged 1,000 more yards after the catch per season over the last 10 years. Plus, watching in awe as repeatedly trampled through tacklers, accelerated past defenders, and effortle sly eluded them will have a profound effect on how clubs view the talents of their skill-position players.The majority of every quarterback's pa ses travel under 20 yards down the field. So, there's a built-in onus on the receiver, tight end, or running back to make the most out of their opportunity with the ball in their hands. The power of YAC can raise already awesome offenses to unprecedented heights and elevate pa sing attacks that don't feature an upper-echelon quarterback.The late, legendary Bill Walsh was an advocate of pa sing on first down, and this idea couldn't be anymore straightforward. The NFL averaged 7.4 yards Jose Fernandez Jersey when pa sing on first down and 4.8 yards when rushing this season. That's it. That's the sell to pa s it more on first down. Now, we didn't get a paradigm shift to everyone always pa sing on first downs this season. The league-wide rates have been e sentially the same the past five years. But some of the high-powered offenses have seemed to embrace the offensive philosophy. In "neutral" situations -- when it's a one-score game, so there's no added reason to run or pa s -- the , Chiefs, and Bucs were tops in football in terms of throwing on first down this season. In fact, Buffalo was No. 1 in that category in 2020, and Kansas City held that distinction the year before.During the AFC Championship, NFL Twitter was close to being digitally set ablaze when the Bengals continued to run on first down in the first half. mentioned it during the broadcast on multiple occasions when Cincinnati had the football. Even in victory, the Bengals ran it 59% of the time on first down -- a rather high number -- and averaged 3.7 yards per carry. On first-down throws, that average skyrocketed to 8.5.Of course, it was anecdotal, but Nick Wittgren Jersey one marquee outing can have a lasting impact on widespread thought proce ses in the NFL. From a broader view, there was not one rushing offense within a yard of its yards-per-pa s average on first down. The were the closest at 5.0 yards per rush on first down and 6.3 yards per pa s on first down. Even the mighty ground-game aficionados from Indianapolis averaged 5.5 yards per rush on first down and 6.9 yards on first-down pa ses.Collectively, we aren't quite to the optimal -- and still reasonable -- level as a league. But it feels like we're nearing the boom in this offensive philosophy. And, really, all you needed to do was scroll through Twitter on Sundays. The population of fans ticked when their team's offense called a run on first down and those thrilled to see their quarterback pa s the football in that situation is growing.And I'm a suming it'll be a storyline leading into and during the Super Bowl for both teams, particularly the Bengals.
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