Impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the transport sector and the corresponding policy measures are becoming widely investigated. Considering the various uncertainties and unknowns about this virus and its impacts (especially long-term impacts), it is critical to understand opinions and suggestions from experts within the transport sector and related planning fields. To date, however, there is no study that fills this gap in a comprehensive way. This paper is an executive summary of the findings of the WCTRS COVID-19 Taskforce expert survey conducted worldwide between the end of April and late May 2020, obtaining 284 valid answers. The experts include those in the field of transport and other relevant disciplines, keeping good balances between geographic regions, types of workplaces, and working durations. Based on extensive analyses of the survey results, this paper first reveals the realities of lockdowns, restrictions of out-of-home activities and other physical distancing requirements, as well as modal shifts. Experts' agreements and disagreements to the structural questions about changes in lifestyles and society are then discussed. Analysis results revealed that our human society was not well prepared for the current pandemic, reaffirming the importance of risk communication. Geographical differences of modal shifts are further identified, especially related to active transport and car dependence. Improved sustainability and resilience are expected in the future but should be supported by effective behavioral intervention measures. Finally, policy implications of the findings are discussed, together with important future research issues.In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing number of states, counties and cities in the United States issued mandatory stay-at-home orders as part of their efforts to slow down the spread of the virus. https://www.selleckchem.com/products/fx-909.html We argue that the consequences of this one-size-fits-all order will be differentially distributed among economic groups. In this paper, we examine social distance behavior changes for lower income populations. We conduct a comparative analysis of responses between lower-income and upper-income groups and assess their relative exposure to COVID-19 risks. Using a difference-in-difference-in-differences analysis of 3140 counties, we find social distance policy effect on the lower-income group is smaller than that of the upper-income group, by as **** as 46% to 54%. Our explorations of the mechanisms behind the disparate effects suggest that for the work-related trips the stay-at-home orders do not significantly reduce low income work trips and this result is statistically significant. That is, the share of essential business defined by stay-at-home orders is significantly negatively correlated with income at county level. In the non-work-related trips, we find that both the lower-income and upper-income groups reduced visits to retail, recreation, grocery, and pharmacy visits after the stay-at-home order, with the upper-income group reducing trips more compared to lower-income group.At the dawn of the year 2020, the world was hit by a significant pandemic COVID-19, that traumatized the entire planet. The infectious spread grew in leaps and bounds and forced the policymakers and governments to move towards lockdown. The lockdown further compelled people to stay under house arrest, which further resulted in an outbreak of emotions on social media platforms. Perceiving people's emotional state during these times becomes critically and strategically important for the government and the policymakers. In this regard, a novel emotion care scheme has been proposed in this paper to analyze multimodal textual data contained in real-time tweets related to COVID-19. Moreover, this paper studies 8-scale emotions (Anger, Anticipation, Disgust, Fear, Joy, Sadness, Surprise, and Trust) over multiple categories such as nature, lockdown, health, education, market, and politics. This is the first of its kind linguistic analysis on multiple modes pertaining to the pandemic to the best of our understanding. Taking India as a case study, we inferred from this textual analysis that 'joy' has been lesser towards everything (~9-15%) but nature (~17%) due to the apparent fact of lessened pollution. The education system entailed more trust (~29%) due to teachers' fraternity's consistent efforts. The health sector witnessed sadness (~16%) and fear (~18%) as the dominant emotions among the masses as human lives were at stake. Additionally, the state-wise and emotion-wise depiction is also provided. An interactive internet application has also been developed for the same.It is well-known that the classical SIR model is unable to make accurate predictions on the course of illnesses such as COVID-19. In this paper, we show that the official data released by the authorities of several countries (Italy, Spain and The USA) regarding the expansion of COVID-19 are compatible with a non-autonomous SIR type model with vital dynamics and non-constant population, calibrated according to exponentially decaying infection and death rates. Using this calibration we construct a model whose outcomes for most relevant epidemiological paramenters, such as the number of active cases, cumulative deaths, daily new deaths and daily new cases (among others) fit available real data about the first and successive waves of COVID-19. In addition to this, we also provide predictions on the evolution of this pandemic in Italy and the USA in several plausible scenarios.Life style of people almost in every country has been changed with arrival of corona virus. Under the drastic influence of the virus, mathematicians, statisticians, epidemiologists, microbiologists, environmentalists, health providers, and government officials started searching for strategies including mathematical modeling, lock-down, face masks, isolation, quarantine, and social distancing. With quarantine and isolation being the most effective tools, we have formulated a new nonlinear deterministic model based upon ordinary differential equations containing six compartments (susceptible S ( t ) , exposed E ( t ) , quarantined Q ( t ) , infected I ( t ) , isolated J ( t ) and recovered R ( t ) ). The model is found to have positively invariant region whereas equilibrium points of the model are investigated for their local stability with respect to the basic reproductive number R 0 . The computed value of R 0 = 1.31 proves endemic level of the epidemic. Using nonlinear least-squares method and real prevalence of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, best parameters are obtained and their sensitivity is analyzed.
Impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the transport sector and the corresponding policy measures are becoming widely investigated. Considering the various uncertainties and unknowns about this virus and its impacts (especially long-term impacts), it is critical to understand opinions and suggestions from experts within the transport sector and related planning fields. To date, however, there is no study that fills this gap in a comprehensive way. This paper is an executive summary of the findings of the WCTRS COVID-19 Taskforce expert survey conducted worldwide between the end of April and late May 2020, obtaining 284 valid answers. The experts include those in the field of transport and other relevant disciplines, keeping good balances between geographic regions, types of workplaces, and working durations. Based on extensive analyses of the survey results, this paper first reveals the realities of lockdowns, restrictions of out-of-home activities and other physical distancing requirements, as well as modal shifts. Experts' agreements and disagreements to the structural questions about changes in lifestyles and society are then discussed. Analysis results revealed that our human society was not well prepared for the current pandemic, reaffirming the importance of risk communication. Geographical differences of modal shifts are further identified, especially related to active transport and car dependence. Improved sustainability and resilience are expected in the future but should be supported by effective behavioral intervention measures. Finally, policy implications of the findings are discussed, together with important future research issues.In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing number of states, counties and cities in the United States issued mandatory stay-at-home orders as part of their efforts to slow down the spread of the virus. https://www.selleckchem.com/products/fx-909.html We argue that the consequences of this one-size-fits-all order will be differentially distributed among economic groups. In this paper, we examine social distance behavior changes for lower income populations. We conduct a comparative analysis of responses between lower-income and upper-income groups and assess their relative exposure to COVID-19 risks. Using a difference-in-difference-in-differences analysis of 3140 counties, we find social distance policy effect on the lower-income group is smaller than that of the upper-income group, by as much as 46% to 54%. Our explorations of the mechanisms behind the disparate effects suggest that for the work-related trips the stay-at-home orders do not significantly reduce low income work trips and this result is statistically significant. That is, the share of essential business defined by stay-at-home orders is significantly negatively correlated with income at county level. In the non-work-related trips, we find that both the lower-income and upper-income groups reduced visits to retail, recreation, grocery, and pharmacy visits after the stay-at-home order, with the upper-income group reducing trips more compared to lower-income group.At the dawn of the year 2020, the world was hit by a significant pandemic COVID-19, that traumatized the entire planet. The infectious spread grew in leaps and bounds and forced the policymakers and governments to move towards lockdown. The lockdown further compelled people to stay under house arrest, which further resulted in an outbreak of emotions on social media platforms. Perceiving people's emotional state during these times becomes critically and strategically important for the government and the policymakers. In this regard, a novel emotion care scheme has been proposed in this paper to analyze multimodal textual data contained in real-time tweets related to COVID-19. Moreover, this paper studies 8-scale emotions (Anger, Anticipation, Disgust, Fear, Joy, Sadness, Surprise, and Trust) over multiple categories such as nature, lockdown, health, education, market, and politics. This is the first of its kind linguistic analysis on multiple modes pertaining to the pandemic to the best of our understanding. Taking India as a case study, we inferred from this textual analysis that 'joy' has been lesser towards everything (~9-15%) but nature (~17%) due to the apparent fact of lessened pollution. The education system entailed more trust (~29%) due to teachers' fraternity's consistent efforts. The health sector witnessed sadness (~16%) and fear (~18%) as the dominant emotions among the masses as human lives were at stake. Additionally, the state-wise and emotion-wise depiction is also provided. An interactive internet application has also been developed for the same.It is well-known that the classical SIR model is unable to make accurate predictions on the course of illnesses such as COVID-19. In this paper, we show that the official data released by the authorities of several countries (Italy, Spain and The USA) regarding the expansion of COVID-19 are compatible with a non-autonomous SIR type model with vital dynamics and non-constant population, calibrated according to exponentially decaying infection and death rates. Using this calibration we construct a model whose outcomes for most relevant epidemiological paramenters, such as the number of active cases, cumulative deaths, daily new deaths and daily new cases (among others) fit available real data about the first and successive waves of COVID-19. In addition to this, we also provide predictions on the evolution of this pandemic in Italy and the USA in several plausible scenarios.Life style of people almost in every country has been changed with arrival of corona virus. Under the drastic influence of the virus, mathematicians, statisticians, epidemiologists, microbiologists, environmentalists, health providers, and government officials started searching for strategies including mathematical modeling, lock-down, face masks, isolation, quarantine, and social distancing. With quarantine and isolation being the most effective tools, we have formulated a new nonlinear deterministic model based upon ordinary differential equations containing six compartments (susceptible S ( t ) , exposed E ( t ) , quarantined Q ( t ) , infected I ( t ) , isolated J ( t ) and recovered R ( t ) ). The model is found to have positively invariant region whereas equilibrium points of the model are investigated for their local stability with respect to the basic reproductive number R 0 . The computed value of R 0 = 1.31 proves endemic level of the epidemic. Using nonlinear least-squares method and real prevalence of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, best parameters are obtained and their sensitivity is analyzed.
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