The spatial variation of land use/cover caused by human activities was an important factor affecting the degree of ES tradeoffs and its scale effect.Habitat quality is an important index to evaluate regional ecological security. Revealing its spatial and temporal responses to urbanization is conducive to the in-depth implementation of new urbanization. Based on land use data, we analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of Changchun's landscape pattern, habitat quality and its sample zone from the grid scale with comprehensive utilization of spatial analysis and ecological model analysis. We further discussed the responses of habitat quality during urbanization. The results showed that the low values of patch density (PD), edge density (ED) and Shannon diversity index (SHDI) were distributed in the western plains, while the high aggregation index (AI) showed a patchy distribution in eastern and southern of the city. During 2000-2015, the habitat quality of Changchun showed a trend of degradation and significant spatial heterogeneity, showing a distribution of "high in the east, and low in the west". The expansion of construction land and the transportaecological infrastructure construction.To analyze the climatic characteristics of snow resources and quantitatively evaluate the climatic suitability of skiing, we proposed the concept of theoretical snow period from the perspective of climate based on the synoptic principle. We set threshold values of different suitability degrees of three indices closely related to skiing, including air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. The conversion function of each index was designed after normalization. Based on grey relational theory and Euclidean distance method, we established evaluation model of ski sports climate suitability index, with Changbai Mountain Ski Resort as an example. The results showed that snow resource in Changbai Mountain area was rich. From 1981 to 2018, the average snowfall during the theoretical snow period was 64.6 mm. Under the background of climate change, the average number of snow days and snowfall decreased slightly over the years, with the starting time of snow season being delayed and the ending time being advanced. The number of snow days in the early winter (from the starting time of snow season to the end of December) was significantly less than that in the later winter (from the next January to the end of snow season). Climate in Changbai Mountain was highly suitable for skiing during the snow period. The most suitable and relatively suitable days with respect to air temperature, wind speed and precipitation accounted for 91.9%, 91.8%, and 94.6% of the total, respectively. The cumulative number of days for ski comprehensive weather suita-bility accounted for 99.7%, indicating that most days were suitable for skiing. The concept of theoretical snow period in this study had made up for the problems caused by the lack of meteorological observation data of the first and last snow event on the study of snow resources. The climate suitabi-lity evaluation model of skiing could help make management decision for the development and operation of ski resorts and scientific support for skiing enthusiasts.Taiwan green jujube (Ziziphus mauritiana) is a new fruit variety, with remarkable economic benefit. To achieve high quality and high yield of jujube in Fujian Province, we quantified the climate suitability model parameters of the jujube in main production areas of Fujian, and analyzed climate suitability characteristics and change trend of main production areas, based on the yield and meteorological data, combined with literature and phenological observation data and agricultural climate suitability model. The results showed that the model based on the equal weight summation method had the highest reliability. The climate suitability of jujube in main production areas of Fujian was higher, with most years being suitable or **** suitable. From 1996 to 2013, the influence of climate conditions on jujube growth was generally in a good trend, which was conducive to the development of jujube production. The suitability of the main production areas in the whole growing season was ranked as temperature suitability>comprehensive climate suitability>sunshine suitability>precipitation suitability. September and October are the key period of water management. Our results are important in guiding production management and long-term planning of Taiwan green jujube in Fujian Province.To explore the impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages (first leaf storey expansion stage, spring flowering stage) of rubber tree in Hainan Island, we established a rubber tree spring phenology simulation model based on the crop clock model and developed a computer software RubberSP. The model simulation accuracy was examined with experimental observed phenology data. Five global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were integrated using Bayesian Model averaging method (BMA) to predict the impacts of climate change on the spring phenology of rubber tree in 2020-2099 (relative to 1986-2017) under climate scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The results showed that the RubberSP model had good simulation accuracy, with the determination coefficient (R2) values ranging between 0.73-0.87, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 3.26 to 4.15 d, and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 3.4%-7.4% between measured and simulated phenology stages. The uncertainty of a single GCM could be avoided by BMA method, which could better reflect the change trend of temperature. Temperature of Hainan Island in the end of 21 century, under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, would increase by more than 0.3, 1.0 and 2.5 ℃ compared with the baseline, respectively. The spring phenology stages would appear earlier and yield would increase in the future climate scenario. https://www.selleckchem.com/products/pu-h71.html The time isoline of spring phenology stages would move forward to northwest, which indicated that most suitable area for rubber tree plantation in Hainan Island would expand to the northwest. The spatial difference of the first leaf storey expansion stage would be more evident, but not for spring flowering stage. The amplitude of rubber tree spring phenology variations was closely related to the increases of temperature under different RCP scenarios, with the most apparent change under RCP8.5 scenario and most mild change under RCP2.6 scenario.
The spatial variation of land use/cover caused by human activities was an important factor affecting the degree of ES tradeoffs and its scale effect.Habitat quality is an important index to evaluate regional ecological security. Revealing its spatial and temporal responses to urbanization is conducive to the in-depth implementation of new urbanization. Based on land use data, we analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of Changchun's landscape pattern, habitat quality and its sample zone from the grid scale with comprehensive utilization of spatial analysis and ecological model analysis. We further discussed the responses of habitat quality during urbanization. The results showed that the low values of patch density (PD), edge density (ED) and Shannon diversity index (SHDI) were distributed in the western plains, while the high aggregation index (AI) showed a patchy distribution in eastern and southern of the city. During 2000-2015, the habitat quality of Changchun showed a trend of degradation and significant spatial heterogeneity, showing a distribution of "high in the east, and low in the west". The expansion of construction land and the transportaecological infrastructure construction.To analyze the climatic characteristics of snow resources and quantitatively evaluate the climatic suitability of skiing, we proposed the concept of theoretical snow period from the perspective of climate based on the synoptic principle. We set threshold values of different suitability degrees of three indices closely related to skiing, including air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. The conversion function of each index was designed after normalization. Based on grey relational theory and Euclidean distance method, we established evaluation model of ski sports climate suitability index, with Changbai Mountain Ski Resort as an example. The results showed that snow resource in Changbai Mountain area was rich. From 1981 to 2018, the average snowfall during the theoretical snow period was 64.6 mm. Under the background of climate change, the average number of snow days and snowfall decreased slightly over the years, with the starting time of snow season being delayed and the ending time being advanced. The number of snow days in the early winter (from the starting time of snow season to the end of December) was significantly less than that in the later winter (from the next January to the end of snow season). Climate in Changbai Mountain was highly suitable for skiing during the snow period. The most suitable and relatively suitable days with respect to air temperature, wind speed and precipitation accounted for 91.9%, 91.8%, and 94.6% of the total, respectively. The cumulative number of days for ski comprehensive weather suita-bility accounted for 99.7%, indicating that most days were suitable for skiing. The concept of theoretical snow period in this study had made up for the problems caused by the lack of meteorological observation data of the first and last snow event on the study of snow resources. The climate suitabi-lity evaluation model of skiing could help make management decision for the development and operation of ski resorts and scientific support for skiing enthusiasts.Taiwan green jujube (Ziziphus mauritiana) is a new fruit variety, with remarkable economic benefit. To achieve high quality and high yield of jujube in Fujian Province, we quantified the climate suitability model parameters of the jujube in main production areas of Fujian, and analyzed climate suitability characteristics and change trend of main production areas, based on the yield and meteorological data, combined with literature and phenological observation data and agricultural climate suitability model. The results showed that the model based on the equal weight summation method had the highest reliability. The climate suitability of jujube in main production areas of Fujian was higher, with most years being suitable or much suitable. From 1996 to 2013, the influence of climate conditions on jujube growth was generally in a good trend, which was conducive to the development of jujube production. The suitability of the main production areas in the whole growing season was ranked as temperature suitability>comprehensive climate suitability>sunshine suitability>precipitation suitability. September and October are the key period of water management. Our results are important in guiding production management and long-term planning of Taiwan green jujube in Fujian Province.To explore the impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages (first leaf storey expansion stage, spring flowering stage) of rubber tree in Hainan Island, we established a rubber tree spring phenology simulation model based on the crop clock model and developed a computer software RubberSP. The model simulation accuracy was examined with experimental observed phenology data. Five global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were integrated using Bayesian Model averaging method (BMA) to predict the impacts of climate change on the spring phenology of rubber tree in 2020-2099 (relative to 1986-2017) under climate scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The results showed that the RubberSP model had good simulation accuracy, with the determination coefficient (R2) values ranging between 0.73-0.87, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 3.26 to 4.15 d, and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 3.4%-7.4% between measured and simulated phenology stages. The uncertainty of a single GCM could be avoided by BMA method, which could better reflect the change trend of temperature. Temperature of Hainan Island in the end of 21 century, under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, would increase by more than 0.3, 1.0 and 2.5 ℃ compared with the baseline, respectively. The spring phenology stages would appear earlier and yield would increase in the future climate scenario. https://www.selleckchem.com/products/pu-h71.html The time isoline of spring phenology stages would move forward to northwest, which indicated that most suitable area for rubber tree plantation in Hainan Island would expand to the northwest. The spatial difference of the first leaf storey expansion stage would be more evident, but not for spring flowering stage. The amplitude of rubber tree spring phenology variations was closely related to the increases of temperature under different RCP scenarios, with the most apparent change under RCP8.5 scenario and most mild change under RCP2.6 scenario.
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