This finding underscores the need for mitigations aimed at lower income/informal workers, and sheds light on critical dependencies between socio-economic classes in Latin American cities.Epidemiological data about SARS-CoV-2 spread indicate that the virus is not transmitted uniformly in the population. The transmission tends to be more effective in select settings that involve exposure to relatively high viral dose, such as in crowded indoor settings, assisted living facilities, prisons or food processing plants. To explore the effect on infection dynamics, we describe a new mathematical model where transmission can occur (i) in the community at large, characterized by low-dose exposure and mostly mild disease, and (ii) in so-called transmission hot zones, characterized by high-dose exposure that can be associated with more severe disease. The model yields different types of epidemiological dynamics, depending on the relative importance of hot zone and community transmission. Interesting dynamics occur if the rate of virus release/deposition from severely infected people is larger than that of mildly infected individuals. Under this assumption, we find that successful infection spread can hinge upon high-dose hot zone transmission, yet the majority of infections are predicted to occur in the community at large with mild disease. In this regime, residual hot zone transmission can account for continued virus spread during community lockdowns, and the suppression of hot zones after community interventions are relaxed can cause a prolonged lack of infection resurgence following the reopening of society. This gives rise to the notion that targeted interventions specifically reducing virus transmission in the hot zones have the potential to suppress overall infection spread, including in the community at large. Epidemiological trends in the USA and Europe are interpreted in light of this model.The emergent patterns of collective motion are thought to arise from application of individual-level rules that govern how individuals adjust their velocity as a function of the relative position and behaviours of their neighbours. Empirical studies have sought to determine such rules of interaction applied by 'average' individuals by aggregating data from multiple individuals across multiple trajectory sets. https://www.selleckchem.com/products/atogepant.html In reality, some individuals within a group may interact differently from others, and such individual differences can have an effect on overall group movement. However, comparisons of rules of interaction used by individuals in different contexts have been largely qualitative. Here we introduce a set of randomization methods designed to determine statistical differences in the rules of interaction between individuals. We apply these methods to a case study of leaders and followers in pairs of freely exploring eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). We find that each of the randomization methods is reliable in terms of repeatability of p-values, consistency in identification of significant differences and similarity between distributions of randomization-based test statistics. We observe convergence of the distributions of randomization-based test statistics across repeat calculations, and resolution of any ambiguities regarding significant differences as the number of randomization iterations increases.The relation between balancing performance and reaction time is investigated for human subjects balancing on rolling balance board of adjustable physical parameters adjustable rolling radius R and adjustable board elevation h. A well-defined measure of balancing performance is whether a subject can or cannot balance on balance board with a given geometry (R, h). The balancing ability is linked to the stabilizability of the underlying two-degree-of-freedom mechanical model subject to a delayed proportional-derivative feedback control. Although different sensory perceptions involve different reaction times at different hierarchical feedback loops, their effect is modelled as a single lumped reaction time delay. Stabilizability is investigated in terms of the time delay in the mechanical model if the delay is larger than a critical value (critical delay), then no stabilizing feedback control exists. Series of balancing trials by 15 human subjects show that it is more difficult to balance on balance board configuration associated with smaller critical delay, than on balance boards associated with larger critical delay. Experiments verify the feature of the mechanical model that a change in the rolling radius R results in larger change in the difficulty of the task than the same change in the board elevation h does. The rolling balance board characterized by the two well-defined parameters R and h can therefore be a useful device to assess human balancing skill and to estimate the corresponding lumped reaction time delay.A rise in fragility as a system approaches a tipping point may be sometimes estimated using dynamical indicators of resilience (DIORs) that measure the characteristic slowing down of recovery rates before a tipping point. A change in DIORs could be interpreted as an early warning signal for an upcoming critical transition. However, in order to be able to estimate the DIORs, observational records need to be long enough to capture the response rate of the system. As we show here, the required length of the time series depends on the response rates of the system. For instance, the current rate of anthropogenic climate forcing is fast relative to the response rate of some parts of the climate system. Therefore, we may expect difficulties estimating the resilience from modern time series. So far, there have been no systematic studies of the effects of the response rates of the dynamical systems and the rates of forcing on the detectability trends in the DIORs prior to critical transitions. Here, we quantify the performance of the resilience indicators variance and temporal autocorrelation, in systems with different response rates and for different rates of forcing. Our results show that the rapid rise of anthropogenic forcing to the Earth may make it difficult to detect changes in the resilience of ecosystems and climate elements from time series. These findings suggest that in order to determine with models whether the use of the DIORs is appropriate, we need to use realistic models that incorporate the key processes with the appropriate time constants.
This finding underscores the need for mitigations aimed at lower income/informal workers, and sheds light on critical dependencies between socio-economic classes in Latin American cities.Epidemiological data about SARS-CoV-2 spread indicate that the virus is not transmitted uniformly in the population. The transmission tends to be more effective in select settings that involve exposure to relatively high viral dose, such as in crowded indoor settings, assisted living facilities, prisons or food processing plants. To explore the effect on infection dynamics, we describe a new mathematical model where transmission can occur (i) in the community at large, characterized by low-dose exposure and mostly mild disease, and (ii) in so-called transmission hot zones, characterized by high-dose exposure that can be associated with more severe disease. The model yields different types of epidemiological dynamics, depending on the relative importance of hot zone and community transmission. Interesting dynamics occur if the rate of virus release/deposition from severely infected people is larger than that of mildly infected individuals. Under this assumption, we find that successful infection spread can hinge upon high-dose hot zone transmission, yet the majority of infections are predicted to occur in the community at large with mild disease. In this regime, residual hot zone transmission can account for continued virus spread during community lockdowns, and the suppression of hot zones after community interventions are relaxed can cause a prolonged lack of infection resurgence following the reopening of society. This gives rise to the notion that targeted interventions specifically reducing virus transmission in the hot zones have the potential to suppress overall infection spread, including in the community at large. Epidemiological trends in the USA and Europe are interpreted in light of this model.The emergent patterns of collective motion are thought to arise from application of individual-level rules that govern how individuals adjust their velocity as a function of the relative position and behaviours of their neighbours. Empirical studies have sought to determine such rules of interaction applied by 'average' individuals by aggregating data from multiple individuals across multiple trajectory sets. https://www.selleckchem.com/products/atogepant.html In reality, some individuals within a group may interact differently from others, and such individual differences can have an effect on overall group movement. However, comparisons of rules of interaction used by individuals in different contexts have been largely qualitative. Here we introduce a set of randomization methods designed to determine statistical differences in the rules of interaction between individuals. We apply these methods to a case study of leaders and followers in pairs of freely exploring eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). We find that each of the randomization methods is reliable in terms of repeatability of p-values, consistency in identification of significant differences and similarity between distributions of randomization-based test statistics. We observe convergence of the distributions of randomization-based test statistics across repeat calculations, and resolution of any ambiguities regarding significant differences as the number of randomization iterations increases.The relation between balancing performance and reaction time is investigated for human subjects balancing on rolling balance board of adjustable physical parameters adjustable rolling radius R and adjustable board elevation h. A well-defined measure of balancing performance is whether a subject can or cannot balance on balance board with a given geometry (R, h). The balancing ability is linked to the stabilizability of the underlying two-degree-of-freedom mechanical model subject to a delayed proportional-derivative feedback control. Although different sensory perceptions involve different reaction times at different hierarchical feedback loops, their effect is modelled as a single lumped reaction time delay. Stabilizability is investigated in terms of the time delay in the mechanical model if the delay is larger than a critical value (critical delay), then no stabilizing feedback control exists. Series of balancing trials by 15 human subjects show that it is more difficult to balance on balance board configuration associated with smaller critical delay, than on balance boards associated with larger critical delay. Experiments verify the feature of the mechanical model that a change in the rolling radius R results in larger change in the difficulty of the task than the same change in the board elevation h does. The rolling balance board characterized by the two well-defined parameters R and h can therefore be a useful device to assess human balancing skill and to estimate the corresponding lumped reaction time delay.A rise in fragility as a system approaches a tipping point may be sometimes estimated using dynamical indicators of resilience (DIORs) that measure the characteristic slowing down of recovery rates before a tipping point. A change in DIORs could be interpreted as an early warning signal for an upcoming critical transition. However, in order to be able to estimate the DIORs, observational records need to be long enough to capture the response rate of the system. As we show here, the required length of the time series depends on the response rates of the system. For instance, the current rate of anthropogenic climate forcing is fast relative to the response rate of some parts of the climate system. Therefore, we may expect difficulties estimating the resilience from modern time series. So far, there have been no systematic studies of the effects of the response rates of the dynamical systems and the rates of forcing on the detectability trends in the DIORs prior to critical transitions. Here, we quantify the performance of the resilience indicators variance and temporal autocorrelation, in systems with different response rates and for different rates of forcing. Our results show that the rapid rise of anthropogenic forcing to the Earth may make it difficult to detect changes in the resilience of ecosystems and climate elements from time series. These findings suggest that in order to determine with models whether the use of the DIORs is appropriate, we need to use realistic models that incorporate the key processes with the appropriate time constants.
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